After surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and, according to the White House’s accounting.
Sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion, no one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis that Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe.
However, the Biden administration and NATO are increasingly concerned about another set of options for President Vladimir Putin.
Steps that are more extensive than simply rolling his troops and armour over Ukraine’s border, as they conduct tabletop simulations of the next few months’ possible outcomes.
The problem stemmed from the continuing War in Donbas, which is part of the larger Russo-Ukrainian War that has been going on since 2014.
Russia submitted two draught treaties in December 2021 demanding “security guarantees,” such as a legally binding promise that Ukraine would not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
And a reduction in NATO troops and materiel stationed in Eastern Europe, and threatening an unspecified military response if the demands were not met.
The Russian War in Ukraine
One of the most important lessons from Russia’s international history has been disregarded by Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
Since February 24, 2022: do not go to war in Europe without some powerful European allies on your side.
Let alone without such allies or even the unimaginable scenario of all of Europe (even neutral Switzerland, Finland, and Sweden) aligned against you.
A few of the most well-known examples are as follows: Russia’s territorial gains were acknowledged in the 1721 multinational Treaty of Nystad when Peter the Great.
Allied with Denmark, Poland, and Saxony, battled Sweden for control in the Baltic between 1700 and 1721.
Catherine the Great’s Russia worked together with Prussia and Austria to wipe Poland from the map of Europe between 1772 and 1795.
The Russian military began its largest mobilisation since the 2014 takeover of Crimea in March and April 2021.
When they began amassing thousands of people and military equipment near Russia’s border with Ukraine and in Crimea.
There was a global crisis because of this because of fears of an invasion. Movements of armoured vehicles, missiles, and other heavy weapons were captured by satellite images.
By June of 2021, the infrastructure had been left in place while the military had retreated to a lesser extent.
By December, over 100,000 Russian troops were massed around Ukraine on three sides, the result of a second buildup that began in October 2021 and involved more soldiers and the deployment of new fronts.